Flávio Bolsonaro Tops Lula in Brazil's First Round
The senator finished ahead of the incumbent president, defying the final polls. Neither reached 50% of valid votes, so the two meet again in an Oct. 25 runoff.
Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, finishing ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and defying the final polls. Neither reached the 50% of valid votes needed to win outright, so the two will meet in a runoff on October 25.
With 98% of the vote counted late Sunday, the 45-year-old senator stood at about 47% to Lula's 45%, according to the Wall Street Journal. Fox News, with 99% counted, reported 47.2% to 44.9%. The result was an upset: Datafolha's final pre-election poll had put Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes against 45% for the incumbent.
Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is in prison. He spent much of the campaign building ties with President Donald Trump, meeting him at the White House in May and presenting himself as a U.S. partner on organized crime, tariffs, and Brazil's critical mineral reserves. Trump's administration has clashed with Lula's government over trade and security.
His campaign also pressed Washington to designate Brazil's two largest criminal organizations, the First Capital Command and Red Command, as terrorist groups. The U.S. State Department agreed in May, and the designations took effect in June. The move angered Lula and his allies, who called it meddling in Brazil's domestic affairs.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. He governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and returned to the presidency in 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. He spent 580 days in prison on corruption convictions that Brazil's Supreme Court annulled in 2021, restoring his political rights. His foreign policy has pursued closer ties with developing economies, while Washington has sought to build a conservative bloc across the region. “It's two competing visions of what the country should look like and what Latin America should look like,” Brian Winter of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas told CNN.
The polls missed it
The final polls had the race as a tie or a narrow Lula lead. Instead, Bolsonaro won the country's three largest states by wide margins — São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro — and conservatives also posted major wins in Sunday's congressional and state elections. Thirteen candidates ran in the first round, and voting is compulsory for most adults in Brazil.
The campaign was dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety, and personal attacks. A sprawling banking scandal drew in figures on both sides, and both leading candidates skipped the major televised debates. The Wall Street Journal called it one of the most vicious campaigns in Brazil's democratic history.
