Le Pen and Mélenchon Top New Poll Ahead of France’s 2027 Election
An Odoxa survey of 12,000 voters puts Marine Le Pen at 37 or 38 percent in the first round, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon second at 18 percent — a run-off between the far right and the hard left as Macron’s centrist ground hollows out.
Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are pulling away from the rest of France’s 2027 presidential field. A new Odoxa poll published Wednesday puts the far-right leader at 37 or 38 percent of the first-round vote, with the hard-left candidate second at 18 or 18.5 percent.
Odoxa surveyed 12,000 people between Sept. 24 and Oct. 7 and tested two scenarios, each pairing the front-runners against a different centrist. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe drew 17 percent in his scenario. Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister, managed 11 percent.
In a head-to-head run-off, Le Pen beats Mélenchon comfortably, the poll found. She also wins a run-off against Philippe, though by a narrower margin. The first round is set for April 18, with the decisive second round on May 2.
The numbers confirm a trend. A separate poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, published Monday, put Le Pen at 35 to 37 percent, up from 33 to 36 a month earlier. In that survey, Mélenchon reached the run-off in all five scenarios tested — a month ago, he finished third in two of them.
Le Pen and Mélenchon have each run for president three times before, in 2012, 2017 and 2022. Mélenchon has never made the second round. Le Pen reached it in 2017 and 2022 but lost to Emmanuel Macron both times.
Macron cannot seek a third consecutive term, and his second and final five-year term is winding down. Pollsters say his unpopularity has hollowed out the political center, opening the field to the extremes — Le Pen’s National Rally on the right and Mélenchon’s France Unbowed on the left.
Election day is still six months off. Polls this far out measure the mood, not the result.
